Trump’s win raises global concerns ahead of COP29 climate summit

The recent U.S. presidential election victory of Donald Trump has cast a shadow over the upcoming COP29 climate summit, raising fears among international climate negotiators that it may undermine global climate goals and significantly strain cooperation on climate finance. Scheduled to take place from November 11-22 in Baku, Azerbaijan, the summit aims to foster further collaboration to curb climate change, but Trump’s return to office is shifting the spotlight onto Europe and China as they face heightened expectations to lead these efforts.

Trump, who has consistently questioned the reality of climate change, plans to withdraw the United States from the Paris Agreement, the pivotal 2015 accord that united countries worldwide in the fight against global warming. Furthermore, some of Trump’s advisors have suggested the U.S. could even pull out of the foundational UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has served as the cornerstone of international climate agreements since 1992.

Negotiators gearing up for COP29 worry that Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris may hinder critical objectives at the summit, particularly regarding climate finance. The United States and the European Union had intended to press China and wealthy Gulf states to contribute to U.N. climate funds—a contentious issue among developing countries seeking fair distribution of responsibilities. Now, with the prospect of a less cooperative U.S., efforts to establish new financial targets and broaden the contributor pool may lose momentum.

“Pushing for more ambitious climate finance is going to be almost impossible without the U.S. buy-in, which will de-motivate developing countries from taking seriously the climate ambitions of the West,” said Elisabetta Cornago, a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform. German climate official Jennifer Morgan emphasized the need for Germany and the EU to step up, yet political challenges have emerged: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz recently canceled his plans to attend COP29 due to an internal crisis, a setback for those looking to Germany as a potential leader in the discussions.

The stakes are high for the coalition of 45 Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which has been vocal about the need for wealthy nations to fulfill their financial commitments to climate adaptation and mitigation. “Any attempt by anyone to sidestep shared responsibilities must be met with dismay,” stated Evans Njewa, chair of the LDC bloc.

Despite these concerns, some climate advocates see a resilient trend toward renewable energy that transcends political shifts. A Latin American climate minister remarked, “The election feels like a slap in the face to climate progress, but it won't stop the global push for clean energy. Sticking with fossil fuels is a dead end.” Morgan echoed this sentiment, highlighting the ongoing momentum behind the Paris Agreement’s goals despite periodic political turbulence.

Nevertheless, the U.S. departure from climate leadership may necessitate a stronger alliance between Europe and China. As the world’s top three polluters, any reduction in U.S. support could destabilize global progress. “If one of the three-legged pillars is wobbling or uncertain, the other two need to hold fast,” a European diplomat told Reuters.

Chinese climate expert Li Shuo, director of the China Climate Hub at the Asia Society Policy Institute, expressed hope that a Europe-China partnership could fill the void left by the U.S., asserting, “A strengthened climate alliance with Europe and China at the centre is our best hope for the next few years.”

In the U.S., states, cities, and local organizations are already mobilizing to offset potential federal pullbacks. Groups like the U.S. Climate Alliance, America Is All In, and Climate Mayors plan to send delegations to COP29, aiming to signal to other countries that parts of the U.S. remain committed to Paris Agreement goals. Representing a substantial share of the U.S. population and economy, these groups could still have a tangible impact on national emissions. A recent University of Maryland report found that if Biden-era climate policies are repealed, these non-federal entities could still achieve a 48% reduction in emissions by 2035, although this falls short of previous targets to cut emissions by at least 50% by 2030.

As COP29 approaches, negotiators are left to weigh both the setbacks and potential new alliances that could sustain global climate momentum in the years ahead.