How Nigeria contributes to Conservative’s loss at UK election

The recent United Kingdom election, poised to end the Conservative Party's 14-year reign, places a daunting array of challenges before the incoming government. From economic stagnation to strained public services, the new administration will inherit one of the most difficult situations faced by any British government since World War Two.

Nigeria has been fingered as one of the reasons for the dismal outing of the Conservative Party at the election. Despite Conservative efforts, net migration targets have been missed repeatedly, even after Brexit ended free movement from the EU. While fewer EU workers are arriving, immigration from countries like India and Nigeria has surged. Net migration dropped to 685,000 in 2023 from 764,000 in 2022 but remains nearly four times higher than in 2019.

The inability of the government to develop a policy that will effectively control high level of migrants especially from Nigeria and India contributed largely to the party's loss.

Nigeria has the highest number of migrants to the United Kingdom (UK) in the year ending June 2022 and has become the third largest nationality group in the country.

Nigerian nationals saw the largest relative increase in Sponsored Study grants compared with 2019, increasing by 57,545, which represents a 686 per cent increase, to a record high of 65,929 migrants.

According to Home Office figures, there were 486,868 Sponsored Study visas granted (to both principal applicants and their dependants), 71 per cent (202,147) more than the figure recorded in 2019 and Nigerians accounted for about 12 per cent of the total, which is the highest increase in the number of dependants accompanying persons with study visas from a single country.

Economic Outlook Since the Conservatives took power in 2010, Britain's economic growth has been modest compared to other wealthy nations, struggling especially after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. While the UK's growth has slightly outpaced Germany, France, and Italy, it falls behind the United States, particularly when considering population growth driven by high immigration. The country faces a historic drop in living standards not seen since the 1950s.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak believes the economy is recovering post-COVID and energy price hikes, while Labour leader Keir Starmer promises the strongest and most sustained growth among the G7 nations. Despite these claims, the UK's post-pandemic recovery has been the second weakest in the G7.

Poverty and Living Conditions The rate of poverty reduction has slowed significantly since 2010. Absolute poverty, defined as income below 60% of the median, decreased five times faster in the 13 years leading up to the 2009/10 financial year than it has since then. Indicators of hardship, such as the inability to adequately heat homes, have worsened due to high inflation. In 2019/20, 4% of working-age adults struggled to heat their homes; by 2023, this figure had risen to 11%.

Workforce Challenges A significant worker shortage has driven up immigration. Post-pandemic, employers struggle to fill vacancies, partly due to record numbers of long-term sickness and increasing student numbers. The UK is unique in the G7 for having a higher inactivity rate now than before the pandemic. Conservatives propose stricter rules on long-term sickness benefits, while Labour plans to invest more in the health service to address this issue.

Healthcare System Strain The National Health Service (NHS) faces severe challenges, with waiting lists for non-urgent treatment nearing 8 million by late 2023, almost double the figure four years prior. Although the backlog has slightly reduced, the NHS still fails to meet targets for treating non-urgent and emergency patients promptly. Health spending growth, adjusted for inflation, has been slower since 2010 compared to previous decades, amid a growing and aging population.

Housing Crisis The Conservatives have also struggled to meet their housing construction targets. In the year ending March 2023, only 234,000 new homes were built in England, well below the 300,000 annual target. The Resolution Foundation think-tank reports that UK housing offers the worst value for money among similar economies.

Productivity and Investment Addressing Britain's economic challenges requires boosting productivity and private-sector investment. London and the southeast are the only regions with above-average output per hour, although the capital's lead has narrowed post-pandemic, potentially due to increased remote working. Since the 2016 Brexit referendum, political instability has deterred significant private-sector investment.

The new government faces a Herculean task in navigating these challenges and steering the country toward a more prosperous future.