China seeks to expand Green Tech exports to Africa amid Looming Western restrictions

China is set to push for greater adoption of its green technologies at a summit with African leaders in Beijing this week. This comes as Western nations prepare to implement restrictions on Chinese exports like electric vehicles (EVs) and solar panels. 

In exchange for greater market access, China is expected to offer more loans and investment to the 50 African nations attending the three-yearly event.

However, African leaders arriving in Beijing may not be swayed so easily. They will likely demand that China make good on a previously unmet promise from the 2021 summit to purchase $300 billion worth of African goods. Additionally, they will seek clarification on the status of unfinished Chinese-backed infrastructure projects, such as the railway intended to connect East African countries.

"The advantage will go to those countries that have thoroughly studied China's evolving priorities and align their proposals with China's new focus," said Eric Olander, co-founder of the China-Global South Project. "However, this is a tough ask for a continent with generally low levels of understanding about China."

As Africa's largest trading partner, lender, and investor, China has played a pivotal role in the continent's development. However, Beijing's approach is evolving. China's focus is shifting from financing large-scale infrastructure projects to promoting its advanced and green technologies, such as electric vehicles and solar energy. 

This change comes as the U.S. and the European Union aim to reduce their reliance on Chinese technology and products, citing overcapacity and concerns about economic dependence.

For China, the primary goal now is to secure buyers for its excess production of EVs and solar panels. The Chinese government is also keen to establish production bases for these technologies in emerging markets like Africa.

Beijing has already begun adjusting the terms of its loans to African nations, prioritizing funding for green energy projects like solar farms and electric vehicle plants, as well as 5G network infrastructure.

This is a notable shift from previous investments in roads, bridges, ports, and railways. In 2022, China provided only $4.2 billion in loans to eight African countries and two regional banks, with around $500 million directed toward renewable energy projects, according to Boston University's Global Development Policy Centre.

As China prepares to host its ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) Summit, President Xi Jinping is expected to promote China’s green energy industry to leaders from countries including Gambia, Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, and Zimbabwe. 

Delegates from every African nation except Eswatini, with which China has no diplomatic relations, will be present.

Recognizing Africa’s strategic importance, other global powers are also competing for influence in the region. The United States, Britain, Italy, Russia, and South Korea have all held summits with African leaders in recent years, eager to tap into the continent’s youthful population and the political power of its 54 United Nations seats.

Despite this, China remains Africa's most significant partner in trade and finance. “No other development partner offers as much,” said Hannah Ryder, founder of Development Reimagined, an African consultancy. 

Ryder noted that African leaders will be eager to ensure that future deals benefit their countries more equitably.

China's focus will likely be on increasing trade, particularly in critical minerals such as copper, cobalt, and lithium from countries like Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe. These materials are essential for the production of batteries and other green technologies. 

However, Beijing is expected to be cautious about making additional financial commitments, given the recent wave of debt restructuring in African nations like Chad, Ethiopia, Ghana, and Zambia.

"We're likely to see more conservative financing when it comes to large-scale projects," said Lina Benabdallah from the Centre for African Studies at Harvard University. Instead, Beijing will emphasize technology transfers, helping African nations develop local capacity for manufacturing and maintaining green technologies.

Yvette Babb, a portfolio manager at asset management firm William Blair, expressed interest in how new financial commitments will be handled and how China plans to address the existing debt burden of African nations.

Security concerns could further dampen China's enthusiasm for lending. Recent incidents, such as a conflict between Niger and Benin that resulted in the deaths of six Nigerien soldiers guarding a PetroChina-backed pipeline, and violent protests in Kenya over tax hikes, highlight the risks associated with investing in certain African countries.

As China and Africa continue to deepen their relationship, the focus of future cooperation is shifting. While traditional infrastructure projects may take a back seat, the emphasis on green technology represents a new frontier for economic collaboration. 

Yet, the success of this partnership will depend on China’s ability to address African leaders' demands for fairer trade terms and follow through on its financial commitments. In a world increasingly shaped by geopolitical competition, the outcome of this summit will have far-reaching implications for both China and the African continent.