Why West Africa is world’s terrorism hotspot

In the early hours before dawn on September 17, a coordinated jihadi assault shook Mali’s capital, Bamako. Hidden in plain sight for weeks, militants launched a multi-pronged attack, targeting an elite police academy, Bamako's airport, and even setting the presidential jet ablaze. The attack claimed the lives of dozens of students and exposed the grim reality: jihadist groups are no longer confined to the rural fringes of West Africa’s Sahel. They are capable of striking the very heart of power.

The Sahel, a vast, arid region stretching across the southern edges of the Sahara Desert, has witnessed escalating violence in recent years. Although conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan dominate global news, the insurgency in West Africa continues to intensify, with far-reaching consequences not only for the region but also for Europe and beyond.

The Rising Tide of Jihadi Insurgencies

For nearly a decade, the Sahel has been home to militant groups linked to al-Qaeda and Islamic State. These insurgencies have transformed rural communities, especially in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, into conflict zones where thousands of civilians have been killed, millions displaced, and governance severely compromised.

The September 17 attack on Bamako was the most audacious in years and marked a disturbing escalation. It highlighted the ability of militants to infiltrate and destabilize the capital cities of countries long grappling with jihadist violence in their rural areas. While Western countries have invested heavily in counterterrorism, their military footprint in the region has been shrinking, creating dangerous gaps in security.

Since 2021, attacks by jihadist groups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have surged. Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED) shows an average of 224 attacks per month in 2024, a stark increase from 128 in 2021. Jihadist-controlled areas have become not only sanctuaries but also training grounds for militants planning larger-scale assaults on neighboring countries and Western targets.

Global Impact: Migration and Instability

The violence in the Sahel is driving migration, fueling Europe’s growing concerns about the influx of asylum seekers. With the migration route from West African coastal countries to Spain’s Canary Islands seeing a 62% increase in the first half of 2024, European governments face a complex dilemma. The U.N.'s International Organization for Migration (IOM) reports that conflict, combined with the adverse effects of climate change, has forced more people to flee, many of whom now embark on perilous journeys toward Europe.

The broader geopolitical consequences are stark. As West Africa becomes a major source of migration to Europe, far-right parties in the EU are seizing on this trend to push for tighter border controls. Meanwhile, internally displaced populations within the Sahel are growing, further stressing the region’s fragile economies and social fabric.

The Regional Response: Coup d'États and Foreign Allies

West Africa’s recent history is marked by a series of military coups in response to rising jihadi violence. Since 2020, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger have all seen the overthrow of civilian governments, largely due to public dissatisfaction with their inability to curb the spread of jihadism. The new military regimes have sought to break from their traditional Western allies, such as France and the United States, instead courting Russia for military assistance, including the services of the Wagner Group, a shadowy paramilitary organization.

However, despite the shift in alliances, the new juntas continue to lose ground to jihadist forces. Experts, including Caleb Weiss of the Long War Journal, believe the current regimes are unstable and could eventually collapse under the weight of mounting insurgencies. Should that happen, the world could witness the emergence of multiple jihadi-run states in West Africa—a prospect that alarms both regional and international observers.

The Role of International Powers

While the United States previously played a significant role in providing air surveillance and intelligence to combat jihadist movements, its influence has waned since Niger's coup leaders expelled U.S. forces. With Western military powers sidelined, jihadis now operate with increased freedom in vast stretches of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger.

The potential for the Sahel to become a new global jihadist launchpad is a growing concern for U.S. and European officials. Though jihadist groups in the region have yet to demonstrate any concrete plans to attack Europe or the U.S., their growing strength and territorial control are reminiscent of other regions, such as Afghanistan, that eventually became platforms for global terrorism.