OPEC oil output drops in September due to Libyan disruption, Iraq compliance+

In September, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) saw its lowest oil output for 2024, according to a Reuters survey published on Thursday. The decline was primarily due to political unrest in Libya, which severely disrupted the country’s oil supply, and Iraq's progress in meeting its OPEC+ obligations to reduce output.

OPEC's total oil production in September was 26.14 million barrels per day (bpd), marking a significant decrease of 390,000 bpd from August. Libya was responsible for the largest share of the decline, contributing a cut of 300,000 bpd. The country has been grappling with a standoff between rival political factions vying for control of its central bank, which caused an interruption in oil exports. This disruption helped push up global oil prices, already under pressure from concerns about demand and increasing non-OPEC+ supplies.

Libya, however, is expected to resume normal production soon, following the resolution of its internal dispute. The country’s national oil company has lifted the force majeure on its oilfields, signaling a rebound in production is on the horizon. Notably, Libya is exempt from the OPEC+ agreement, which means it is not bound by the group's production cut targets.

Apart from Libya, Iraq was the second-largest contributor to OPEC’s overall production drop. The country, which has been producing above its OPEC+ quota for months, is gradually moving toward compliance with the agreed cutbacks. In September, Iraq’s production fell by 90,000 bpd but still remained above its target by the same amount, highlighting the country’s ongoing efforts to meet OPEC+ obligations.

Nigeria, another key OPEC member, also recorded a decrease in oil production, with a reduction of 40,000 bpd. The decline was attributed to lower export volumes, as confirmed by tanker tracking firms.

While most OPEC members reported lower or stable outputs, Iran was the only country to show a significant increase in oil production. Despite ongoing U.S. sanctions, Iran has been ramping up its exports, nearing production levels last seen in 2018. Iran, like Libya, is exempt from OPEC production cut requirements.

Overall, OPEC pumped 130,000 bpd more than the target set for the nine members bound by the OPEC+ agreement. Iraq accounted for the majority of the excess, as the country continues to fine-tune its compliance with the group's production limits.

The Reuters survey, which is a trusted source for OPEC production data, is based on a combination of shipping data, information from oil tracking firms such as Kpler and Petro-Logistics, and insights from sources within OPEC and the oil industry.